Updated vision as of September 18, 2020, covering the 2020 and 2021 delivery years.
RTE has today published an update to the first analyses published on 11 June on the security of supply over the 2020-2021 winter, in the context of the health crisis (link to media release ; link to the document).
Following that and prior to the next auctions on the capacity mechanism (particularly the auction ending 24 September covering the delivery year 2021), RTE is releasing an update of the transparency elements available to date on the capacity mechanism to enable the participants to assess the situation observed today on the supply demand balance of capacity guarantees on the mechanism for the 2020 and 2021 delivery years, as well as to update it with further publications, or adapt it according to their own assumptions.
This publication specifically incorporates new obligation forecasts (conducted by RTE consistent with the elaboration of the next generation adequacy report) and pre-estimations of obligated parties (who were called on during the summer regarding this), thus allowing the anticipated impact of the health crisis on economic activity and electricity consumption to be taken into account. These new forecasts and pre-estimations have been published today on the dedicated Parameters and market parties of the capacity mechanism, in the « French obligation level depending on demand scenario in GW » tab. It also make the assumptions that the Minister takes into account the recommendation formulated by CRE in the deliberation taken for an opinion on the draft rules "3.3" of an increase in the contribution of interconnections with the Great Britain, resulting from an update of the hypothesis on the commercial commissioning of the IFA2 interconnection (compared to the hypothesis considered in the 2019 generation adequacy report).
In addition, RTE recalls that RTE's proposals to introduce into the rules of the capacity mechanism exceptional measures aimed at facilitating the emergence of capacities contributing to security of supply as of this winter have have received a positive opinion from CRE.
September 18, 2020